Israeli authorities have launched an investigation into a high-value wager placed on Polymarket that correctly forecast a US strike on Iran on 28 February.

The bet generated an estimated $430,000 in gross profit for the account holder known as “Magamyman,” prompting scrutiny over whether the trade was based on insider knowledge of military plans.

Insider Knowledge Under Review

According to reports from Channel 12, investigators are examining whether the account holder had access to sensitive information or whether the winning trade was coincidental.

The username has drawn additional attention due to a possible reference to US President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign.

Authorities are reviewing the account’s betting history, which includes previous predictions tied to Middle Eastern military activity. Notably, the account accurately forecast an Israeli strike on Iran on 26 October 2024 — a move reportedly approved only days before execution.

Growing Scrutiny of Geopolitical Prediction Markets

The case has intensified debate around the ethics and risks of prediction markets, particularly when tied to military conflict.

Recently, Polymarket removed a market allowing users to speculate on the likelihood of a nuclear strike less than seven hours after it appeared online, following public backlash.

Israeli financial outlet Globes reported that approximately $529m had been wagered across Polymarket markets predicting the outbreak of war, with around $90m tied specifically to 28 February as a start date.

The Magamyman account also reportedly placed $553,000 on a prediction that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, would be removed from power shortly before he was killed during the recent escalation.

The repeated accuracy of such predictions has heightened concerns about the potential misuse of classified information for financial gain.

Regulatory and Legal Pathways

Investigators are expected to rely on both domestic security laws and international cooperation mechanisms.

Polymarket recently established a regulated US branch subject to oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As a result, the platform must maintain detailed transaction logs and internal surveillance systems capable of flagging suspicious activity.

Regulators could compel the disclosure of wallet addresses, timestamps, and associated account data through subpoenas or court warrants.

Blockchain Trail and KYC Requirements

Although prediction market accounts may appear anonymous, blockchain transactions leave digital traces. Users typically fund accounts using cryptocurrency transferred from centralised exchanges that enforce Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures.

Investigators can:

  • Trace wallet addresses back to exchanges
  • Request user identification linked to those wallets
  • Examine IP addresses and device data stored by the platform
  • Seek cooperation from internet service providers

Under Israel’s Counter Terror Law of 2016, security agencies including the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing have authority to seize assets and compel disclosure of information if national security concerns arise.

Amendment 13 to Israel’s Protection of Privacy Law, enacted in August 2025, further extends investigatory reach to foreign companies handling Israeli residents’ data, potentially affecting platforms operating outside the country.

Broader Implications

The case highlights increasing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, particularly those intersecting with military and diplomatic events.

While the identity of Magamyman remains undisclosed, Israeli authorities believe that legal and technical tools — ranging from blockchain analytics to cross-border data requests — could ultimately pierce the veil of anonymity.

The investigation underscores a growing global concern: whether prediction markets can unintentionally create financial incentives tied to sensitive geopolitical events, and how regulators should respond when speculation and state secrets potentially collide.