Monopoly model facing fresh scrutiny

Poland’s long-standing online casino monopoly is back in the spotlight as policymakers, lobbyists and operators clash over whether liberalisation is overdue.

Under current rules, land-based casinos and bingo halls operate under licence, while online sports betting is open to private companies subject to a 12% turnover tax. Online casino, however, remains exclusively controlled by Totalizator Sportowy through its Total Casino platform.

Critics argue the model, introduced nearly a decade ago, has failed to fully contain offshore competition.

Grey market plateau fuels reform push

According to Piotr Palutkiewicz of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, the idea that a monopoly ensures control has proven unrealistic.

Poland maintains a blacklist of roughly 55,000 domains, yet offshore operators continue to attract players. Estimates cited by reform advocates suggest:

  • Around 40% of the online casino market remains unlicensed
  • Approximately 83% of Polish online casino players hold accounts on illegal platforms

While channelisation has improved from near-total offshore dominance in the early years, growth appears to have stalled. Meanwhile, the overall online market is expanding at roughly 11% annually.

For liberalisation supporters, that stagnation signals the ceiling of the current model.

Political memory complicates change

Any reform effort must contend with Poland’s 2009 gambling scandal, which reshaped political attitudes toward the sector. The controversy led to resignations of senior officials and ushered in stricter gambling laws.

Since then, lawmakers have treated gambling policy as politically sensitive territory. As Marek Płota of RM Legal notes, few parties are willing to champion liberalisation openly. Currently, only the far-right Confederation party has placed market opening on its agenda, and broader legislative change is viewed as unlikely before the 2027 elections.

This caution comes at a time when several Western European markets are tightening rules, giving Polish sceptics ammunition to defend the status quo.

Operators see untapped potential

Private operators insist the economic case for reform remains strong.

Superbet, which entered Poland in 2020, says the market’s fundamentals are attractive despite regulatory constraints. Poland boasts:

  • A large, tech-savvy population
  • A strong sports culture
  • An economy ranked among the world’s top 20

Yet the 12% turnover tax on sports betting is among Europe’s highest, affecting pricing competitiveness and arguably sustaining grey market activity in certain verticals.

Despite these headwinds, operators forecast double-digit growth in 2026, supported in part by the upcoming World Cup.

Sports betting strong, casino lagging

Channelisation tells two different stories depending on vertical.

For sports betting, estimates suggest a healthy 70% to 80% channelisation rate. Licensed brands can advertise via Google and influencers, strengthening their competitive position.

Online casino, by contrast, remains problematic. Even if the monopoly claims channelisation has reached around 60%, critics question whether a state-exclusive model should tolerate a 40% leakage rate at all.

Forecasts cited by industry figures suggest that under the current system, channelisation gains may improve by only two or three percentage points by 2030 — hardly transformative.

CEE context shapes the debate

Poland is often grouped within the broader Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) cluster, alongside markets such as Czechia, Romania and Hungary. The region shares:

  • Rapid digital adoption
  • Expanding middle-class economies
  • Persistent regulatory tension between liberalisation and control

Yet regulatory diversity across CEE is striking. Some countries operate competitive licensing systems across verticals, while others maintain monopolies in selected segments. Poland occupies a hybrid middle ground.

Reform against Europe’s defensive turn

Across Europe, gambling regulation has entered a more restrictive phase. Higher taxes, advertising curbs and political scrutiny have complicated the narrative around liberalisation.

For Polish policymakers, examples of declining channelisation in some liberalised Western markets raise a difficult question: would opening online casino improve compliance — or weaken it?

Reform advocates argue that replicating the competitive sports betting model could shrink the grey market to manageable levels. Opponents counter that loosening control risks reputational and political backlash.

Summary

Poland’s online casino monopoly is under renewed pressure as grey market share stabilises around 40% and overall market growth continues. Reformers argue the state-controlled model has reached its limits, while political caution and Europe’s tougher regulatory climate slow momentum for change. For now, liberalisation remains more theoretical than imminent — but the debate is unlikely to fade as the market expands.