Pi Coin has recovered nearly 11% since its February 23 low, reaching around $0.174. While this rally attracts retail buyers hoping for further gains, deeper technical signals suggest the recovery might be misleading.

Bearish Pattern Behind the Rebound

The rebound is forming an inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a structure typically associated with downward continuation. The handle portion often looks strong but can fail near resistance, creating a setup for a breakdown.

Indicators show a concerning contradiction. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been rising since February 23, signaling active dip buying. The Money Flow Index (MFI) also formed higher lows despite falling prices, indicating a bullish divergence. However, these signals are occurring within a bearish framework, raising the risk of a trap for retail buyers.

Momentum Divergence Hints at Weak Recovery

Pi Coin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a higher high, while the price achieved a lower high compared to previous rallies. This hidden bearish divergence suggests momentum is rising, but price strength remains weak. Buyers may be losing control, making the current rebound potentially unsustainable.

Large Investors Are Exiting

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below zero and has been trending lower, indicating that capital from larger investors is leaving Pi Coin. While retail traders continue to buy, the lack of support from major holders heightens the risk of a reversal.

Key Pi Coin Price Levels

Price LevelSignificance
$0.161Falling below confirms bearish inverted cup-and-handle breakdown
$0.130Potential target if breakdown continues
$0.122Possible new low if downtrend persists
$0.173Early sign of strength returning
$0.193Weakens bearish pattern significantly
$0.207Invalidates bearish structure completely

Until Pi Coin breaks these resistance levels, the recent rebound may simply be a temporary recovery within a larger downtrend, rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.

Critical Price Levels to Watch

The next few days will be decisive for Pi Coin. Falling below $0.161 could confirm the bearish breakdown, potentially pushing the price toward $0.130 or even $0.122. Conversely, a move above $0.173 would signal early strength, while surpassing $0.193 or $0.207 could weaken or invalidate the bearish structure entirely.

Until Pi Coin breaks these resistance levels, the recent rebound may simply be a temporary recovery within a larger downtrend, rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.