JP Morgan trims Macau’s February GGR forecast to +2%, citing slow Lunar New Year start; full-month growth still expected at 12–13% YoY.
Macau’s casino industry enters late February with more cautious expectations. JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd has lowered its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for the month to roughly flat or a 2% rise compared to last year, down from an earlier 2–5% estimate.
Lunar New Year Timing and Daily Performance
- Average GGR over the first 22 days of February: MOP14.3 billion (≈US$1.78 billion).
- Early holiday period saw daily GGR around MOP450 million, down double digits YoY.
- Later days of the holiday picked up to over MOP1.2 billion daily, reflecting a 10–15% YoY increase.
Post-Holiday Demand
- Higher-end players’ spending after the holiday is expected to contribute to the final February tally.
- Analysts emphasize that full-month data will clarify overall performance.
Broader Growth Perspective
- Combining January and February, JP Morgan expects 12–13% YoY GGR growth.
- Citigroup notes a modest 1% YoY increase for February, with wagering volumes 17% higher than last year’s Lunar New Year.
Despite the soft February outlook, Macau’s market shows resilience, with strong post-holiday demand and steady overall growth for the start of 2026.
