Macau’s casino industry entered February 2026 at a slower pace, though analysts maintain confidence that overall two-month revenue growth remains intact. According to data compiled by Citi, casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the first eight days of February was roughly 14% below January’s average daily rate, even as the region approaches the key Chinese New Year period.

Between February 1 and 8, total GGR reached approximately MOP5.0 billion ($621 million) — or about MOP625 million per day, compared with MOP730 million daily in January. Citigroup analysts attributed the short-term pullback to a recurring pre-holiday slowdown, when many visitors delay travel plans until the festival week.

Not all indicators, however, align with that view. MGM China Holdings CEO Kenneth Feng Xiaofeng noted that visitor levels appear consistent, even in the days before the holiday, suggesting that spending patterns, not traffic levels, may be driving the moderation.

VIP and Mass Segments Ease Simultaneously

Volumes Decline, But Hold Levels Stay Normal

Citi’s industry sources indicate both VIP and mass-market gaming segments saw measurable declines in early February.

  • VIP betting volumes: Down 12–14% versus January.
  • Mass-market GGR: Lower by roughly 11–13% month-on-month.

Despite that downturn, VIP hold percentages — the share of total wagers casinos retain — remained normal. The parallel slowdown across both player categories underscores how Macau’s gaming cycle remains tied to timing and holiday effects, not a broader market weakness.

Forecast Holds Despite Weak Start

Chinese New Year Expected to Boost Revenue

Citi has left its forecast for February unchanged, predicting Macau casinos will bring in around MOP20.5 billion in total GGR, up 4% year-on-year. To achieve this, daily revenue through the rest of the month would need to average MOP775 million, a level analysts expect will be reached once the Chinese New Year celebrations begin.

The 2026 festival starts on February 17, supported by a 9-day mainland China holiday (February 15–23) — a schedule that should bring a surge of visitor arrivals and increased spending in both mass and VIP segments.

Two-Month Growth Outlook Remains Solid

Recovery Trend Holds Firm

Factoring in the later timing of the holiday, Citi projects January–February combined GGR at MOP43.1 billion, representing a 13.5% jump from the same period last year.

In 2025, Chinese New Year fell on January 29, pulling most festive revenues into January totals. With the 2026 holiday positioned deeper into February, more of that spending will be captured this month. The shift helps explain the early lull and supports expectations for a strong rebound once the celebrations begin.

Summary

Macau’s casinos started February on a gentler note, but analysts see no reason to adjust upward growth expectations. With the Chinese New Year holiday set to drive record visitor inflows and GGR projections steady, the city’s gaming sector appears on track to extend its recovery streak into 2026 — even after a slower first week of the month.